Expert: Steel prices will go through a difficult period next year

Han Weidong, a senior expert in the steel industry, said recently that although there have been many unexpected trends in steel prices this year, comprehensive analysis shows that steel prices will have to go through a difficult period next year.

Han Weidong said that there are many changes worthy of attention in the steel market this year. The first is the overcapacity of steel, but the varieties and regions have become unbalanced. This year's output growth rate is very low, about 2%, pig iron growth is about 0.4%; regional imbalances, although the country's growth, but Hebei Province crude steel is expected to reduce more than 5 million tons this year, this is a very important change.

Secondly, the increase in steel exports this year was unexpected, and the export price was very good. The export volume has increased by 40% this year, and the export of individual varieties has increased by 80%. Exports have become the biggest highlight of the year, but they have also become the biggest variable next year.

The third is the sharp drop in the prices of steel and raw materials, the sharp decline in steel social inventories, and the depletion of reservoirs and financing. But steel mills and e-commerce began to seek breakthroughs, and the Internet began to profoundly change the steel industry. Although the profitability of the steel industry has improved, the funding situation is difficult to understand.

Based on the analysis of the trend of the steel industry this year, Han Weidong believes that China's steel output may have zero growth next year, and exports are unlikely to increase significantly. In addition, steel prices enter the bottom area, but regional and variety prices will differentiate. Environmental protection, capital, and market competition will cause some companies to withdraw from competition, and steel and electricity companies will play a greater role.

Han Weidong said that the impact of the domestic and international economic situation on the steel industry will be very variable next year, the steel industry will return to meager profit, but the performance of various varieties will be differentiated. The market will continue to undergo a process of adjustment, at least next year, it will have to go through a difficult period.

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