Abstract Time is flying fast, and in the blink of an eye, 2013 is the end of the year. For the world economy, the world economy was in a fragile recovery stage in the first three quarters of 2013, and the developed economies generally tend to improve, but they still face high unemployment, high deficits, and insufficient growth stamina; the structural adjustment of emerging economies...
Time is flying fast, and in the blink of an eye, 2013 is the end of the year. For the world economy, the world economy was in a fragile recovery stage in the first three quarters of 2013, and developed economies generally tend to improve, but they still face high unemployment, high deficits, and insufficient growth stamina; structural adjustments in emerging economies are lagging behind, growth Significantly slowed down. Overall, the world economic situation tends to improve, but the situation is still complicated. For this reason, the grand prospect of the machine tool industry that is expected to be fully recovered this year has not appeared. Looking at the world, the industry situation in mainland China and Taiwan is not diminished. The United States has seen a year-on-year decline in machine tool orders in the context of overall manufacturing expansion. Only Japan and Germany showed signs of recovery in the third quarter. (Because the data for the last two months of this year has not been published before the publication, this article only analyzes the data for the first three quarters)
Mainland China: The severity of the situation is not diminished
China Machine Tool Industry Association released the economic operation analysis report from January to September. The report pointed out that under the general environment of China's economic growth slowdown, the market environment and other growth factors have changed. China's machine tool industry is undergoing transformation and upgrading. A severe test.
According to the statistics of China Machinery Industry Federation, in October 2013, the national machine tool industry completed export delivery value of 3.678 billion yuan, down 5.09% year-on-year and 2.3% quarter-on-quarter. In terms of categories, the export delivery value of the metal cutting machine tool manufacturing industry rebounded slightly in October. The export delivery value of the month was 560 million yuan, down 8.56% year-on-year and 7.27% quarter-on-quarter. The export delivery value of cutting tool manufacturing and other special equipment manufacturing decreased by a large margin in October, which dragged down the overall growth rate of the export of the machine tool industry by 10%.
In terms of output, in October 2013, the output of major products in the statistical range of the machine tool industry maintained a sequential increase. Only the output of metal cutting machine tools decreased slightly, and its output in October was 61,213 units, down 3.47% from the previous month. Judging from the year-on-year growth rate of the machine tool industry in October, the industry situation is not severe, and the metal forming machine tools and metal cutting tools have further expanded year-on-year.
The China Machine Tool Industry Association's key contact enterprise data and some enterprises' research also showed that in the first three quarters, especially from January to August, the machine tool industry was in a low-level operation state; the overall market scale shrank, the industry's industrial structure, product structure and market The contradiction of demand has not been effectively alleviated; the profit of the company has continued to decline in the first three quarters, and the market competition has become increasingly fierce. Under the situation of insufficient recovery of the world economy, the downward trend of export growth has not improved significantly. At the same time, the long-term growth of imports has also fallen sharply. It further confirms the overall shrinkage of the market size.
According to the comprehensive data analysis, the industry's economic operation in the first three quarters showed the following main features: low capacity utilization, tight liquidity; demand structure continued to upgrade, marketing service model changed; equipment investment accounted for an increase, foreign investment enthusiasm declined; The economic recovery is weak, and emerging markets are hard to support.
Considering the "end-to-tail" at the end of the year and the low base at the end of the previous year, it is expected that the annual growth rate of the industry will reach 13-14% by the National Bureau of the Bureau, and the key enterprise can be flat or slightly reduced.
Taiwan, China: Machine tool exports have fallen sharply
According to the Taiwan Machinery Industry Association (TAMI), from January to October 2013, Taiwan's machine tool exports amounted to 2.934 billion US dollars, down 18.4% year-on-year. Among them, exports in March were 310 million US dollars in a single month, down 12.9% year-on-year. In July, exports were US$320 million in a single month, down 19.2% year-on-year. In August, exports were $304 million in a single month, down 20.5% year-on-year. Exports in September were $278 million, down 27.4% year-on-year. Exports in October were $303 million, down 11.5% year-on-year. The monthly export is basically stable at around $300 million.
Statistics show that Taiwan's machine tool products exported to the top 15 markets in January-October 2013, ranking first in the mainland, with an export value of 924.16 million US dollars, accounting for 32.1% of all exports, a negative growth of 23.4% over the same period last year. The United States ranked second, with an export value of 327.97 million US dollars, accounting for 11.2% of exports, a negative growth of 25.9% over the same period last year. Thailand's third, export value of 119.128 million US dollars, accounting for 6.5% of exports, a negative growth of 15.5% over the same period last year. See Table 1 for details.
Table 1 Statistical analysis of the export of Taiwan's machine tool products from January to October 2013. (Amount unit: 1,000US)
Huang Jianzhong, secretary general of the Taiwan Machine Tool and Components Association, said that Europe and the United States expect the aerospace and automotive industry to see rapid growth in 2014. Many machine tool manufacturers such as Dongtai Precision Machinery and Fuyu Machine Tool have also switched from 3C industry orders to automobiles. Industry, even Gao Feng Industry also assisted the automobile industry through the parent company and multi-party assistance. Huang Jianzhong also expects the Taiwan machine tool industry to recover significantly in the second quarter of next year.
Japan: Signs of recovery are obvious
As of September this year, the monthly order value of Japanese machine tools has returned to 100 billion yen or more, which is 100.636 billion yen, but it has decreased by 6.3% year-on-year. From the perspective of domestic demand, the amount of machine tool orders in Japan in September was 42.121 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 35.9%, showing a growth trend for three consecutive months, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis. In terms of external demand, overseas orders amounted to 58.515 billion yen, down 23.4% year-on-year, and fell for the 12th consecutive month.
By October, the Japan Machine Tool Industry Association released data showing that Japan’s machine tool orders (quick-up value) increased by 8.4% year-on-year to 102.022 billion yen, 18 months past the same period last year, and also for two consecutive months. It is regarded as the industry's wind vane of 100 billion yen. Among them, domestic orders in Japan recovered significantly, up 40.5% year-on-year to reach 38.65 billion yen, an increase for four consecutive months. Manufacturing revenues improved and equipment investment plans increased. In particular, small and medium-sized enterprises such as molds have benefited from equipment investment subsidies, and have started a new round of equipment investment, with orders accounting for more than 50% of domestic orders for machine tools. On the other hand, export orders decreased by 4.8% year-on-year to 63.537 billion yen, a decrease for 13 consecutive months. Despite this, the reduction was 18.8 percentage points lower than last month. Demand for smartphones for China has been sluggish since last fall, but the demand for auto orders for North America is better, and orders for aircraft demand in Europe are starting to improve.
US: PMI's steady growth orders continue to decline year-on-year
Along with the expansion of US manufacturing, the US Institute of Supply Management announced that the manufacturing PMI index for September reached 56.2%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. At the same time, the US factory also began to recover from the decline in output at the beginning of the year. Waldman, chief economist of the US Manufacturing Productivity and Innovation Alliance, said that the growth rate of PMI exceeded the increase in factory output. This is a good phenomenon, but the unstable global economic recovery and domestic political uncertainty have affected the equipment investment of enterprises, which in turn affected Production at the US factory.
In this context, according to the American Association of Machinery Manufacturing Technology (AMT), in September 2013, the US metal processing machine tool orders amounted to 398 million US dollars, an increase of 5.8% from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 31.1%. Among them, the order value of metal cutting machine tools was 391 million US dollars, up 6.9% from the previous month; the order value of metal forming machine tools was 7 million US dollars, down 32.0% from the previous month.
Statistics show that from January to September 2013, the US metal processing machine tool orders amounted to 3.508 billion US dollars, down 11.3% year-on-year. Among them, orders for metal cutting machine tools were US$ 3.399 billion, down 10.9% year-on-year; orders for forming machine tools were US$ 108 million, down 23.1% year-on-year.
Douglas K. Woods, president of AMT, said that the recent increase in orders for metalworking machines in the United States indicates that some industries in the United States are actively investing, especially in the aerospace industry, which expects orders to grow by more than 10% next year. In addition, we expect the entire manufacturing industry, including automobiles and energy, to achieve growth.
At the same time, the consumption of cutting tools in the United States continued to decline in the first three quarters of this year. According to the Cutting Tool Market Report (CTMR) jointly released by the American Cutting Tool Association (USCTI) and the Manufacturing Technology Association (AMT), the total US cutting tool consumption in September was US$160 million, a decrease of 3.8% from the previous month and a decrease of 3.1% from the same period last year. Tool consumption totaled $1.5 billion in the first nine months, down 6.7% year-on-year.
According to comprehensive statistics, the US cutting tool consumption in the first half of 2013 was US$1.014 billion, down 8.2% year-on-year. In June, consumption was US$155 million, down 12.8% year-on-year; July consumption was US$157 million; August consumption was US$160 million, down 13.2% year-on-year. In addition to September, the decline has been expanding since June. The current monthly consumption is around $160 million.
Brad Lawton, president of the American Manufacturing Technology Association's Cutting Tool Products Group, said that the decline in cutting tool shipments compared to 2012 was mainly due to the slowdown in orders for metal products; the power generation equipment and aircraft and parts industries are expected to grow in 2014.
The Cutting and Cutting Tool Market Report (CTMR) is a monthly report jointly issued by the American Manufacturing Technology Association and the Tool Association. The purpose of the two associations is to promote and support the foundation of the US manufacturing industry - cutting tools, and hope to analyze the US manufacturing activities with tool consumption. To measure real production.
Germany: Orders are rising and the market is gradually recovering
According to the German Machine Tool Manufacturers Association (VDW), in the third quarter of 2013, German machine tool orders increased by 9% compared with the same period of the previous year, domestic orders increased by 12%, and foreign orders increased by 6%. The data shows that orders in the first three quarters were about 10.7 billion euros, down 6% year-on-year, of which domestic orders were about 3.54 billion euros, down 10% year-on-year, and foreign orders were about 7.18 billion euros, down 4% year-on-year.
The president of the German Machine Tool Manufacturers Association, Villefred Schaefer, said that demand for the machine tool market has begun to recover, especially in August and September, with double-digit increases in orders, and demand for metal cutting machines and forming machines at home and abroad is increasing. The Hanover EMO exhibition in September also played a certain role.
From the current point of view, large orders for forming machine tools from abroad will drive the development of the machine tool industry in the whole year, with an increase of 61% in the third quarter, and an expected annual increase of 27%.
Concerns are mainly from China, the largest sales market. China's demand has dropped significantly in the first half of the year, but it does not rule out a substantial recovery in demand. Demand in Western Europe was better than expected; orders in Central and South America achieved double-digit growth; orders in South Korea and Southeast Asia also increased.
From the current situation, Schafer said that the annual production expectations of the German Machine Tool Manufacturers Association can still be achieved.
In summary, in 2013, the overall situation of the world machine tool market is still not clear enough. Especially for China, the signs of industry recovery are hidden and unrealistic. In November, at the “2013 26th China Machine Tool Industry Development Forum 2013 and the 2014 Operation Situation Seminarâ€, “Bottom Operation, Return to Rationalityâ€, “Declining Total Demandâ€, “Confusion and Hopeâ€, Keywords such as “contradictory supply and demand (structure)â€, “demand is forced, accelerated transformation†and “adjustment†frequently appear in the mouths of public experts. Perhaps this is the current development and trend of the machine tool industry.
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