Coal chemical industry has limited impact on plastics during the year

Recently, the Dalian Commodity Exchange organized some domestic ** researchers to investigate the situation of coal chemical industry in the northwest region. The field-investigated coal chemical projects included Shenhua Hualin's MTO project, Baofeng Energy, and Shenhua Ning Coal, and learned about some Shaanxi Yanchang Coal projects from the side. China Coal Yulin Project. From the investigation, the impact of PE and PP produced by coal chemical industry on the domestic market may be relatively limited during the year. Most of the devices have some hidden risks that may not be able to be put on the market or fully loaded as scheduled.

In the already commissioned project, although the Shaanxi extended MTO project and China Coal MTO project have been driven at the current stage, the lack of chemical talents has not been able to drive at full capacity so far. This is especially true for the China Coal Project, which has been able to extend some engineers due to its refining background, but this cannot solve the shortage of talents in the chemical process. Datang Duolun is in short of chemical talents and there are major defects in its chemical process. The device has basically failed.

According to our research, due to the high profit rate of coal-to-olefins, the northwestern coal-rich regions have launched a large number of MTO and MTP plants. The investors mainly come from coal companies, power companies, and refineries. However, coal-to-olefins companies that are interlaced and hurriedly launched have not adequately reserved technicians and engineers. Shenhua Group solved this problem well. The Shenhua Baotou Project introduced a large number of chemical engineering talents from PetroChina and Sinopec to ensure the normal start-up of the coal-to-olefins project. However, to the best of our knowledge, Shenhua’s situation is rather special and not every coal system. Olefins manufacturers can import talents from petrochemical companies like Shenhua.

China Coal's MTO project has already been reversing the car (first methanol to olefins and then coal to methanol) and has already purchased methanol from our research group Yancoal Group. However, under the assistance of the project owner, it is still possible to drive at full capacity and it is not ideal to start work without an engineer. China Coal's extension of the MTO has also been reversing, and the conditions for starting construction have been slightly better, but there is also a shortage of technicians. The above two conditions are universal, and the lack of technical personnel in coal-to-olefins companies can not increase the start-up load.

In Datang Duolun, the situation is much more serious. The core problem of Datang lies in its technical devices. The core technology of coal chemical industry lies in the gasification process of coal, and coal gasification is also the beginning of coal chemical industry. At present, the main domestic use of fluidized bed gasification process or gasification bed gasification process, and Datang Duolun's gasification process can not meet the quality requirements, resulting in follow-up production processes are inherently inadequate, and ultimately Datang product quality has been unable to Satisfying the market, Datang is also relatively lacking in technical personnel, and the two situations have caused Datang to face a dilemma.

Technical personnel and basic technical issues are short-term limiting factors for coal chemical industry. In the long run, the lack of water in the northwest region will be the deciding factor in limiting the coal chemical industry in the northwest. Coal chemical industry is a high-consumption project. The average water consumption per ton of finished products is about 15 tons. However, China’s water resources have gradually declined from the southeast to the northwest. The two coal chemical industrial bases in Shaanxi Yulin and Ningxia Ningdong are all water-scarce areas. The average annual rainfall in Shaanxi Yulin is 450mm, the national average rainfall is 630mm, and the southeastern coast and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are 1500-2000mm. At present, the major coal chemical projects in the country are concentrated in the northwest. In the future, a large number of currently planned facilities may not be launched due to water shortages. Even if start-up is started, the start-up load of the plant may remain low due to lack of water resources. You need to discount.

Just after the end of our investigation, Baofeng Energy may not be able to start the car on time due to technical problems. China Coal's extension of the MTO project is due to problems with the heavy oil cracking test. Overall, the market should not over-estimate the impact of coal chemical projects on the PE and PP markets, at least for a limited time during the year.