Abstract China's economic news data this week's point of view
China's economy | News data | View of the week |
Economic Situation | 1) The OECD (World Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) lowered its forecast for China's GDP growth rate to 7.8 in 2013, and expected it to be 8.5% in November last year. 2) The final value of HSBC China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2 in May, and it has shrunk for the first time since October last year. 3) China's official manufacturing PMI rose from 50.6 to 50.8 in May 4) IMF: China's local debt accounted for 40% of GDP growth | We again saw the divergence of PMI data. The improvement of the official PMI data suggests that large enterprises are performing well, but the overcapacity and high-energy-consuming industries are showing an obvious acceleration trend, which is worthy of attention because these industries are at a disadvantage in the national economic transformation. The situation of SMEs is still deteriorating, and the slowdown in economic growth is still doubtful. The Chinese economy will still delay this slow growth. |
Policy trends | 1) The National Development and Reform Commission plans to rebuild 10 regional urban agglomerations such as Jianghuai 2) China's four major banks added about 300 billion yuan in credit in May 3) The SAFE officially implemented the new regulations on June 1 to reduce the influx of hot money 4) Li Keqiang said that the service industry will become a new engine for sustainable development. | The construction of urban agglomerations will bring new impetus to economic growth, because there are different levels of competitive relations in various provinces and regions. The substantive benefits of such policies are relatively limited; however, from the credit market, new credits in May The scale will reach more than 800 billion yuan. Banks are importing “hormone†into the economy, and investment in driving the economic growth will require more time to correct. |
International economic | News data | View of the week |
Japan | 1) The OECD raised its forecast for Japan's GDP growth rate to 1.6% in 2013, and 0.7% in November last year; 2) Japan's sales in the first quarter decreased by 5.8% year-on-year, and profit increased by 6.0% year-on-year. 3) Japan's construction orders in April increased by 2.0% annually, and the previous value decreased by 3.4%. 4) Japan's industrial output increased by 1.7% in April, much higher than expected 5) National CPI-0.7% in April, a slight increase from the previous value 6) Japan's manufacturing PMI increased to 51.5 in May | Although the economics of Ampere is not recognized by the majority of the market, from the results, the signs of Japan's economic recovery are obvious, the level of inflation has gradually turned positive, and the market has become "prosperous". The improvement of economic data hides the shortcomings of AMP economics, and the huge debt problem is still a sword hanging on the market. Interest rates have risen, the stock market has fallen, and there are hidden concerns in the Japanese economy. |
Emerging Markets | 1) South Korea's HSBC manufacturing industry fell to PMI51.1 in May, the previous value was 52.6 2) South Korea's industrial output increased by 0.8% in April, higher than expected 3) India's HSBC manufacturing PMI was 50.1 in February, lower than the previous value of 51.0. 4) Governor of the Bank of India said that the timing of foreign exchange intervention entered the scope of policy formulation 5) Hungarian central bank cuts interest rates by 25 basis points | Emerging markets continue the weak recovery, and the uncertainty facing growth is too large and needs to be driven by major economies. The currency war triggered by the global loose tide is still spreading, maintaining a cautiously optimistic judgment on the emerging market economy. |
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