Abstract According to data from the China Machinery Industry Federation, the Chinese machine tool industry experienced a gradual recovery in 2012 compared to the previous year. The total industrial output value reached 705.797 billion yuan, representing a 12.73% increase year-on-year. Sales output value amounted to 588.923 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 12.25%. The production-to-sales ratio stood at 83.44%, while the total export value reached 516.745 billion yuan, up by 9.79% compared to the same period in 2011. However, the growth rate dropped by 8.42 percentage points when compared to the previous year.
Since late 2012, there has been a noticeable decline in the import volume of metalworking machine tools, but the unit price of these imports continued to rise. This trend persisted into 2013. Although the import volume decreased in the first seven months of the year, the average unit price increased by 6.4%. In July 2013, the import volume saw a month-on-month increase, but the average unit price fell slightly. According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in July 2013, China imported 7,132 units of metalworking machines, a sharp drop of 33.7% year-on-year. The import value was 869 million U.S. dollars, down 31.6% year-on-year, with an average unit price of $121,900.
From January to April, the total production of gold-cutting machine tools was 243,000 units, a decrease of 2% compared to the same period last year. The cumulative production of CNC gold-cutting machine tools reached 60,000 units, down 7.9% year-on-year. In April alone, 22,000 metal forming machine tools were produced, marking a 7% increase year-on-year. The cumulative production of forming machine tools for the first four months was 69,000 units, a 2.6% decline from the previous year. Our earlier analysis suggested that the machine tool industry would begin to stabilize in the second quarter. The April data shows some positive signs, and considering the lagging macroeconomic cycle and the recovery of downstream industries, we expect the industry to gradually improve in the second half of the year.
In terms of imports, 650,000 machine tools were imported in April, a 22.7% decrease year-on-year. The import value was 970 million U.S. dollars, down 3.1% compared to the same period in 2012. From January to April, the cumulative import of metalworking machine tools totaled 25,600 units, a 19.3% decrease year-on-year. The cumulative import value was 3.67 billion U.S. dollars, down 12.1%. On the export side, 1.23 million metalworking machine tools were exported in April, a significant 105% increase year-on-year. However, the export value was 210 million U.S. dollars, a slight decrease of 0.9% year-on-year, indicating a drop in the average unit export value. The cumulative export value from January to April reached 890 million U.S. dollars, showing a 5.5% increase year-on-year.
In May 2013, the export value of the machine tool industry was 3.74 billion U.S. dollars, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.19%. From January to May, the total export delivery value reached 16.98 billion U.S. dollars, with a cumulative growth rate of 2.57%.
In May, the output of metal cutting tools was 67,852,100 pieces, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.31%. The cumulative output from January to May was 3,075,564,200 pieces, reflecting a 24.42% increase year-on-year.
From January to June 2013, the total import and export volume of the machine tool industry reached 11.787 billion U.S. dollars, a decrease of 11.44% compared to the same period in 2012. This accounted for 3.74% of the machinery industry's total trade. The negative growth in both imports and exports widened, with exports outpacing imports. Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Shanghai, located on the eastern coast, have traditionally been the main regions for importing CNC machine tools and are also home to many export-oriented enterprises. Together, these three regions accounted for more than half of the CNC machine tool imports. However, in recent years, as investment and construction activities increased in central and western China, the import volume in these areas has seen fluctuations.
In recent years, the economies of central and western China have grown rapidly, characterized by large-scale, concentrated import sources and lower single-unit prices. These imports are mainly used by processing enterprises serving the IT industry. This indicates that China's export processing industry is gradually shifting towards the central and western regions.
In the first half of 2013, the pace of overseas investment in the Chinese machine tool industry slowed down. Three main factors contributed to this decline: First, changes in national policy led to foreign-invested enterprises no longer receiving the same preferential treatment in taxation and equipment imports. Second, market sentiment in mainland China weakened, reducing the appeal of foreign investment. Third, rising domestic manufacturing costs have compressed labor dividends, aligning with the trend of labor-intensive industries moving to neighboring countries. Among the eleven major products, metalworking machines had the largest deficit, while tools had the largest surplus. From January to June, the trade deficit in the machine tool industry reached 3.499 billion U.S. dollars.
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