Analysis of problems and countermeasures of China's photovoltaic industry

In recent years, Chinese PV companies have seized the European and American government's policy on PV subsidies, and their capacity has expanded rapidly. They have formed a complete solar photovoltaic system including high-purity silicon production, solar cell and component manufacturing, photovoltaic system installation and related supporting industries. Industry chain. Since 2008, China's PV module manufacturing volume has occupied half of the global PV modules, and has maintained rapid growth. In 2011, under the unfavorable international environment of the global PV market downturn, the European debt crisis and the US “double opposition”, it still occupied nearly 50% of the total, and achieved an annual growth rate of 37%. However, due to the rapid growth of PV market and the huge profits before 2011, it is actually caused by the huge profits of government subsidies and manufacturing from the laboratory to the early stage of industrialization. This situation makes the market of the photovoltaic industry extremely dependent on government subsidy policies. Therefore, when the financial tsunami and the European debt crisis involve the crisis that the government wants to use funds, the impact of the photovoltaic industry is the first to bear the brunt. The problems exposed by Jiangxi Saiwei and Wuxi Suntech in the near future are typical manifestations of this influence. In 2011, the downturn in China's PV industry was actually due to the above macro background, combined with the following four micro-integrations: The long-term rapid growth of the market has caused many Chinese investors and practitioners to ignore the PV market as an industry development. An important feature of the initial phase is that technology and equipment are updated quickly, and all technology updates are built around “low cost, high efficiency”. This feature makes the PV industry's equipment update fast, and the equipment's life cycle is short. After two or three years after a device is launched, new equipment will face the fate of elimination. Therefore, when establishing a factory, equipment investment should not be excessive. However, almost all Chinese PV companies have ignored this point. The profitability of the photovoltaic industry for many years has led investors to ignore the development of their own technology. Since the photovoltaic industry is an emerging industry, it has not yet formed a mature industrial technology, equipment and technology. At present, the equipment produced by major equipment companies is also developed based on basic research and laboratory test results plus a small amount of experiments. It was soon released to the market. At this time, the user's own research and development is particularly important. If small improvements can be made to the device, it is easy to bring about a substantial increase in production efficiency and a significant cost reduction. But almost all PV companies in China ignore this. The Chinese government's on-grid price is not reasonable enough to cause the market price to slow down too fast. In August 2011, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the PV on-grid price, 1 yuan / kWh in 2012. Since the price of electricity is not differentiated for the regions with different sunshine conditions in the country, the price of components that are pushed back according to the feed-in tariff is much lower than the market price at that time. This is the price of PV modules in China dropped from 13 yuan/watt to 6 yuan/watt. The main reasons are as follows. Due to the growth rate of Germany's advance overdraft installations in 2010, and the huge profits at that time, China's capacity growth rate was as high as 300%. This excessive capacity expansion combined with the price drop mentioned above makes most PV companies in China face huge pressure on the capital chain and has to clear the price at a price lower than the cost price. This has caused panic in the industry. This panic has gradually spread to the investment and financial circles with the report of many PV listed companies, which has formed a situation of talking about photovoltaic color change. Although China has emerged a number of internationally renowned companies such as Jiangsu Zhongneng, Wuxi Suntech, Jiangxi Saiwei, Tianwei Yingli, and even the world's number one position in their respective links, but because there is no foresight of scientific development, Without independent technology, once the industry fluctuates greatly, these giants fall far faster than they develop. Practice has proved that the more enterprises that do not have independent technology, the more they worship foreigners, the more they do not think about innovation, and the more they introduce them, the faster they fall, and the speed of their fall has nothing to do with the size of the company. We should boldly adopt China's independent innovation technology. At present, although China is a large PV manufacturing country, it is not a photovoltaic manufacturing power. Taking the current polysilicon as an example, the foreign sales price to China is reduced by 150,000 yuan/ton, and there are still profits, but almost all enterprises in China can only stop production. This is the result of relying on foreign technology. However, China's manufacturing experience over the years has actually accumulated a lot of innovation. In fact, many companies have developed many "low-cost, high-efficiency" photovoltaic manufacturing technologies. For example, the PM method of polysilicon purification technology developed by Shanghai Proo can reduce the cost to 60,000 yuan/ton at a purity of 99.99995%, which is only 1/2.5 of the cost of foreign Siemens. The casting single crystal technology being developed by many domestic manufacturers is already in the international leading position. In the current trough of the crisis phase, as long as China's PV companies boldly use these innovative technologies for independent innovation and boldly adopt their own domestic achievements, they can further reduce the cost of photovoltaic power generation. In this case, even if the European debt crisis continues to ferment, even if the United States persists in double-reverse, China's photovoltaic industry can still get rid of its dependence on European and American markets and technologies, get rid of its trade barriers, and lead the world alone. This will also make Europe and the United States establish trade barriers, the greater the damage to its own photovoltaic industry development, and China can develop better. Establishing China's unique photovoltaic manufacturing system In China, traditional industries such as textiles, clothing, electronics, etc., in addition to independent innovation in the main links of polysilicon, ingots, slicing, battery chips, components, etc., should also give play to the advantages of China's manufacturing powers, the car The manufacturing advantages of traditional industries such as electronics, clothing, and textiles are transferred to the manufacturing system of the photovoltaic industry. In this way, it will be able to establish the most competitive photovoltaic manufacturing system in the world and minimize the cost. At present, in China's photovoltaic manufacturing industry, although the downstream cost is temporarily lower than that of foreign countries, the cost of polysilicon is higher than that of foreign countries. In terms of equipment manufacturing, many aspects of manufacturing technology are still dependent on foreign countries. Therefore, the manufacturing advantage is not obvious. Once the advantages of China's traditional manufacturing industry are transferred, it will be in an unassailable leading position. In this way, any trade barriers abroad will cause them to take their own feet and lose only their own. Conclusion Although the photovoltaic industry is currently at a low point, many photovoltaic giants may fall or even go bankrupt. However, the photovoltaic industry is still in its infancy, in the initial stage of an emerging industry. "Shenzhou has a thousand sails on the side, and Wanmuchun in front of the diseased tree", the big waves and sands, the replacement, will only make the photovoltaic industry more healthy and more mature. Only those companies that insist on making good products with their own intellectual property rights will become the evergreen tree and develop in the long-term and sustainable.

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