PV Insights: Light Trading During the Christmas Holidays This week, the photovoltaic market saw a slowdown during the Christmas holiday period in Europe and the U.S., with overall prices in the supply chain remaining stable. Monocrystalline wafers and solar cells continued to show strong demand, while manufacturers have shifted their focus from price cuts to reducing production capacity. Silicon wafer companies, despite ongoing pressure from long-term polysilicon shortages, are now resisting further price reductions, and polysilicon prices have stabilized at current levels.
Solarzoom reports that inventory levels remain low, and pricing is gradually stabilizing. With current market conditions, manufacturers are no longer willing to lower prices blindly, as it doesn't lead to meaningful transactions. The key issue remains limited demand, so prices have largely remained steady, with only small-volume deals taking place. In the wafer market, there was little movement this week, and inquiries remained largely unchanged compared to last week. Despite weak downstream demand, which continues to suppress any potential price rebound, 80% of wafer producers have cut output or even shut down production. As a result, market inventory is not high, which has helped stabilize prices in the short term. Wafers may continue to trade in a weak but stable range.
In the solar cell segment, demand has been relatively stable recently. With the announcement of the second batch of Golden Sun projects, project developers are beginning preparations. However, overall market activity remains light, and there's no strong support for price increases. There's also limited room for further declines. Most domestic cell manufacturers are maintaining normal orders while also controlling production lines to avoid overstocking. Market activity this week showed no follow-through, and companies are showing a clear tendency to keep quotes flat.
On the module side, domestic module prices remained stable this week. Module prices haven’t changed significantly, and the market is still sluggish. With more than half of December already gone, the overall market is in a downturn. Before new policies become clearer, both terminal companies and module manufacturers remain cautious, keeping trading volumes low. However, compared to previous periods, prices have fallen slightly, and component inventories are significantly lower, which has weakened the downward trend.
In terms of ports, current inventory levels are low, and domestic stock is not high. Most companies are avoiding taking large inventories and are instead adopting a wait-and-see approach. Some, however, are building up stocks of battery-related materials, ready to respond quickly if demand arises. For now, component prices are expected to stay around current levels in the short term.
Policy Update: Focus on New Energy Distributed Generation Plans Due to trade tensions and weak overseas markets, the government is considering new measures to boost the domestic market. The introduction of a new energy distributed generation plan could help stimulate local demand and is currently under discussion. Investors should keep an eye on further developments.
Risk Alert: Potential for Further Price Declines Amid Rising Trade Tensions The risk of further price declines in PV products remains, especially if trade tensions escalate.
Investment Recommendation: Maintain “Neutral†Rating for the Solar Sector While the solar sector has seen a recent rebound, fundamentals suggest that prices are beginning to stabilize. We believe the market is likely at the bottom, but a significant price recovery will require stronger demand. Given the traditional off-season, we recommend maintaining a “neutral†rating for the industry and closely monitoring future price movements.Jiangsu Jiajie Special Screw Co., Ltd , https://www.jiajiescrewcompany.com