Government work report: Storage energy peaking becomes the next growth area

Annual electricity consumption growth rate: 3-3.5%
The benchmark scenario given by CEC at the beginning of the year is 3% of electricity consumption growth. In addition, the policy factor (“steady growth”) is ±0.5%, and the weather is ±1%. From the government's reported goals, GDP growth rate, deficit rate, and M2 growth rate are both tightening and tightening in the real sense. The direction is very clear: to loosen the steady growth and exchange space and time for reform. Under this policy expectation, today's "steady growth" factor contributes less to electricity consumption. Considering the hot summer in 2016, but the winter is relatively warm, this year's weather is expected to be corrected by 0.5%. Taken together, it is expected to be between 3-3.5% for the whole year, which is significantly lower than 5% for 2016.
If the GDP growth rate is 6.5%, the annual electrical elasticity coefficient is 0.46-0.54. The dependence of economic growth on demand for electricity is weakened. On the one hand, it reflects the adjustment of China's economic structure, on the other hand, the impact of climate on electricity consumption is increasing.
Coal power: winter is coming
A large number of new projects will be put into production in the past two years in 2014-2015, and the cumulative effect will not be realized until the following year. If the bottom line of 1.1 billion kilowatts of coal-fired power in 2020 is maintained, the overall utilization hours of coal-fired power will bottom out in 2019.
Renewable energy: carrying weight
On the one hand, the decline in the utilization hours of thermal power makes the consumption of renewable energy more severe; on the other hand, the decline in the utilization hours of thermal power has also made it difficult to enforce the green certificate. Or, from another point of view, in order to avoid the worsening of thermal power companies, the mandatory green card theory will not be implemented until 2019.
Medium and long term: renewable and flexible power supply
Subject to the de-capacity policy, coal-fired power investment will be “blocked”. In the short to medium term, the assets available to the power generation group may only have renewable energy. As the proportion of renewable energy continues to expand, its demand for peak shaving will be even greater. The current solution is mainly coal-fired power. However, if coal power is no longer built in the short term, the utilization hours will gradually increase, and the peaking space will continue to decrease.
What power supply should be built in the future to meet the peaking? Coal power as a base load power source is obviously no longer suitable for peaking positioning. More flexible power supplies such as gas and energy storage will likely become the next growth area.
to sum up:
Under the background of low growth rate of electricity growth, the era of base load, renewable and flexible power supply is coming soon; the government should not miss the window of the market subject by adjusting the growth target to adapt to the new normal.

Pellet Stove

Pellet Stove,Free Standing Pellet Furnace,Cheapest Pellet Stove,Heatilator Pellet Stove

Jinan Huancheng Heating Equipment Manufacturing Co., Ltd. , https://www.globalstove.com