Rebar up to 3700 yuan

After one and a half months of consolidation, the Shanghai Rebar ** main contract finally broke the price of 3,700 yuan per ton. According to industry sources, the rebar market since December this year was mainly stimulated by the expected economic stimulus. Expectations of optimistic data, central economic adjustment and urbanization infrastructure are expected to boost market confidence, but there is excess pressure on the fundamentals. It is still difficult to say "reverse" in the absence of elimination.

Off-season "flying red"

Although the steel market has entered the off-season, the rebar market in the ** market is more “floating.” Since November 30th, the rebar ** main contract of 1305 was only one day out of seven working days, with a range (highest price) rate of 6%, ending the weak consolidation for the past month.

Jin Rui ** steel analyst Zhou Ting said that macro-oriented for the needs of the steel market to inject impetus, but in the promotion of restructuring and adjusting the price of housing policy, the demand for a moderate increase in the probability of greater. The contradiction between supply and demand is still outstanding, and the suppression of the steel market will continue to exist.

It is noteworthy that some market participants indicated that at the time of the previous year, steel traders began to make a large number of voluntary stockings. However, this year, both the capital situation and the bearish market are suppressing it. The enthusiasm of traders Dongkuo is much lower than in previous years.

In spite of this, the steel production enthusiasm is still greatly improved. Data show that the average daily output of crude steel in November remained above 1.95 million tons, which is at a historically high level. In addition, in November, the production index of the steel industry PMI index fell by 7 percentage points from October to 50.1%, but it was still at a relatively high level. Corresponding to the high output is the bleak demand. Since mid-October, with the gradual decline in the construction site operating rate, the terminal procurement of the steel market has remained in a downturn.

"Reversal" has not yet reached "As long as steel profits are appreciable, steel mills will increase production of horsepower, supply and demand pressure will become more apparent, and steel prices will shrink." Zhou Ting said that rebar is currently rebounding only for a short period of time. It is not a reversal, and it is expected that the contribution of infrastructure to the increase in steel demand will be limited next year and will not increase substantially.

In respect of raw materials, according to customs statistics, China’s import of iron ore was 65.78 million tons in November, an increase of 9.44 million tons from October, an increase of 16.73% from the previous month, and the average price of iron ore imports was US$109.97 per ton in November. The chain rose 4.83%.

Qiuyue Cheng, a senior researcher at the Nisshin Shinkansen Group, believes that in October, the domestic steel industry has turned around in losses as the cost center of gravity of steel companies has shifted downwards and the rebound in steel prices. At present, most domestic iron and steel enterprises still have a certain profit margin for production, and have a higher enthusiasm to increase production of crude steel for the full year production target, and the amount of iron ore is also increasing.

Cokes related to rebar have also performed well in recent times, but their basic surface is almost the same as that of rebar. Galaxy Analyst Ma Cheng believes that before December 12th, the spot price of coke coking coal increased, the 1305 contract ** did not rise, which was a bearish view of the future price and demand, and the steel industry still did not get rid of the pessimistic atmosphere in the entire industry chain. Coking companies and other product inventories are in a relatively low state, which in turn gives market support.