Abstract In just over 3 years, Hanergy Holdings has invested more than 140 billion yuan in photovoltaic solar energy base projects, and its photovoltaic empire map is gradually taking shape. According to the "Securities Times" report, as the only PV plaque invited to attend the Boao Forum for Asia, the board of directors of Hanergy Holding Group...
In just over 3 years, Hanergy Holdings plans to invest more than 140 billion yuan in the photovoltaic solar energy base project, and its photovoltaic empire map is gradually taking shape. According to the "Securities Times" report, as the only PV plaque invited to attend the Boao Forum for Asia, Li Hejun, chairman of the board of directors of Hanergy Holding Group, revealed at the forum that as the world's largest thin film solar energy company, the company is currently planning to go public in Hong Kong. However, Li Hejun did not disclose in detail the specific time of the IPO, where the funds were raised, and whether the market focused on the holding subsidiaries or the separate listings.
Industry insiders told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that Hanergy Group may inject assets into the listed company Hanergy Solar, and the overall IPO approach is difficult.
Bet film solar cell
Polycrystalline silicon solar cells and non-polycrystalline silicon thin film cells are two different routes in the solar industry. As the price of polycrystalline silicon photovoltaic modules has fallen sharply, the enterprises that take the route of polycrystalline silicon batteries are currently in trouble. Even Suntech Power, which was the leader of the photovoltaic industry, was forced to bankruptcy and reorganization. What kind of advantages does the thin-film battery have, which makes Hanergy's counter-trending huge-capacity plus-film battery industry, does it have the magic to reverse the sluggish situation of the photovoltaic industry? In this regard, "Daily Economic News" reporter interviewed several institutions in the field of photovoltaic researchers.
Ren Haoning, a researcher in the new energy industry of China Investment Consulting, told the “Daily Economic News†that the polysilicon battery production route is currently the mainstream in the photovoltaic field, with a market share of 80%, and the market share of non-polysilicon thin film batteries is less than 20%. The rest is occupied by other new batteries. From a technical point of view, the polysilicon battery technology is relatively mature, and the production cost of the thin film battery is high, and the investment in research and development is also high, and the general enterprise cannot do it. In addition, the yield of polysilicon is relatively high, and there will be more defective products in the production process of thin film technology, which will result in waste of resources.
Analysts in the new energy industry of China Merchants Securities (Hong Kong) said in an interview with the "Daily Economic News" that the main difference between thin film batteries and crystalline silicon batteries is conversion efficiency, attenuation, floor space, flexibility and so on. According to the latest offer from PVinsights, the price of thin-film components is only 0.62$/w, which is only 8% lower than that of crystalline silicon components. Considering the different conversion efficiencies, thin-film components are at least 20% cheaper to be competitive.
At the end of last year, in the context of a serious surplus in the photovoltaic industry, Hanergy invested 27 billion yuan to build the world's largest thin-film solar module. According to media reports, Li Hejun said that perhaps the thin film battery will also have the current situation of polysilicon, but the problem is not big in 10 years.
Ren Haoning, a researcher in the new energy industry of China Investment Consulting, analyzed that 10 years is a relatively optimistic statement, mainly from the market share. It is expected that there will be a situation in which the polycrystalline silicon battery and the thin film battery go hand in hand in the photovoltaic cell industry. Since the current market share of thin film batteries is less than 20%, this provides a lot of room for future development. Therefore, there will be no overcapacity in the next 10 years, which is based on this consideration. However, Hanergy's thin film battery production line has been relatively fast, with 7,8 in recent years. This will put a lot of pressure on the subsequent development, especially the fund.
Development model is key
For the Chinese PV industry that has already fallen into the mud, analysts of the new energy industry of China Merchants Securities (Hong Kong) believe that the domestic PV development model can refer to some companies listed overseas. There are three models for reference: the first is technology-oriented. Take FirstSolar as an example, high-tech threshold and strong R&D capability.
The second is cost-oriented. Take GCL-Poly (03800, HK) as an example, digest and absorb foreign technology and independently innovate, and continue to reduce costs through technological transformation and production capacity advantages. It is suitable for state-owned enterprises or private enterprises with background of state-owned enterprises.
The third is to choose nichemarket (nichemarket), taking Comtec (00712, HK) and Industrial Solar (00750, HK) as examples. Comtec chooses to enter high-end N-type monocrystalline silicon. In the field of film, it has a first-mover advantage and a high entry threshold. Because the market is relatively small, competition is relatively moderate, and Xingye Solar has chosen to enter the field of photovoltaic building integration, spanning the building and photovoltaic industry, and has high barriers to entry.
Ren Haoning, a researcher in the new energy industry of China Investment Consulting, pointed out that the domestic PV industry faces two major obstacles, namely market obstacles and technical obstacles. Photovoltaic production technology is already in a backward position with no first-mover advantage. Like the thin-film battery, the film that used to produce batteries needs to be imported from abroad. After Hanergy Holdings made the thin-film battery, the domestic thin-film technology has been improved a lot, and the degree of nationalization has moved forward.
Ren Haoning emphasized that domestic PV companies must control production capacity, which is a key. Because of the current overcapacity, and the entire structure is undergoing transformation and adjustment, capacity control is not good, chasing technology and the market is relatively nonsense.
Overall listing or obstacles
According to the data, there are already several domestic PV companies that have withdrawn from the IPO army of A-shares, including Ningxia Jingxin New Energy Equipment Co., Ltd., which has successfully met. Why is Hanergy Holdings so close? In addition to being affected by the downturn in the domestic PV industry, the market is not very recognized by PV companies and the IPO opening schedule is not regular. Hanergy Holdings owns a Hong Kong-listed company, Hanergy Solar (00566, HK, formerly known as Apollo Solar). One of the reasons for its listing in Hong Kong.
Ren Haoning, a researcher in the new energy industry of China Investment Consulting, said that the listing of Hanergy Holdings in Hong Kong will provide confidence to domestic PV companies. This shows that although the overall environment of the industry is not good, there are still enterprises like Hanergy Holdings that can survive and have certain development prospects.
However, Ren Haoning believes that this may also induce some PV companies to shift to thin film battery production. If there is a large amount of polysilicon enterprise transfer, overcapacity in the field of thin film batteries will appear soon. The general industry has experienced a small economic cycle of about 5 years. Although Hanergy Holdings is doing well now, it does not mean that the problems existing in the entire industry can be solved quickly.
An industry insider believes that the prospects for the overseas market of amorphous silicon thin-film batteries made by Hanergy Holdings are currently small. The method of consuming inventory by building power stations is not sustainable because the cost is higher than that of crystalline silicon, and the country is targeting thin film technology. There are no special preferential policies.
In the case of possible IPO, the person analyzed that Hanergy Group may inject assets into the listed company Hanergy Solar. The overall IPO method is difficult, high debt, low transparency, and investment projects that have been stranded in various places. Processing is a problem. More importantly, at present, the Hong Kong capital market has been fatigued by photovoltaics, and amorphous silicon films may be left out. Unless Hanergy digests the acquired technology, energy production has a thinner battery with higher conversion efficiency and lower cost.
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