Recently, according to foreign media reports, US regulators are considering adjusting the "Volcker Rule." One of the important contents is that financial institutions such as banks can carry out self-operated business and no longer restrict their own business including futures.
The future evolution and development of this news has far-reaching significance for the long-term trend of international oil prices. If the "Volcker Rule" prohibits the self-employment of banks and other financial institutions from being cancelled or weakened, then as a large amount of speculative funds gradually enter the oil futures market, the speculative bubble in oil prices will once again be blown up, oil prices will last and trend. The rise will be an inevitable phenomenon.
After the Trump administration came to power, Trump repeatedly stated that he would revise the financial regulatory bill enacted by the previous government, and accused the bill of impeding bank funds from engaging in low-risk businesses and weakening the competitiveness of the banking and financial systems. . Especially in the recent context, under the basic context of Trump's promotion of American competitiveness, the revision of the financial supervision of the Dodd-Frank Act has become the general consensus of the US banking community and regulators. Even the main author of this rule in 2010, Frank, the former chairman of the House Financial Committee, said that the Dodd-Frank Act is indeed too restrictive, but should not be banned and can only be modified.
In fact, since the Trump administration took office, speculators in the oil futures market have expected this regulation to be banned or weakened sooner or later. In the New York oil futures market, nearly 2.7 million non-commercial positions have been gathered, which is about 90% higher than that of the first time in 2015, when the withdrawal of speculative funds was reduced to 1.4 million hands. Just because the time of the bill or the time of being banned or weakened is not clear, the bulls are still inconvenient to violate the existing bills too much. The growth of long positions is slightly inferior to the growth rate of non-commercial positions.
Due to the bullish stagnation of the bulls, the larger speculative bubble in the oil price is still in the making, and the oil price has not climbed to the height it should have. However, with the restrictions on self-employment of banks and other financial institutions being officially lifted, speculative funds that have already entered and more funds that may be newly entered will drive the speculative bubble in oil prices to expand rapidly, and may lead to a new round of explosive rise in oil prices. .
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