The end of the demographic dividend is inevitable without pessimistic interpretation

China, which has always been known for its “population and abundant labor force”, has undergone new changes in its demographic structure: the labor force has declined and the elderly population has risen. According to the latest bulletin issued by the National Bureau of Statistics, at the end of 2012, the working-age population in mainland China fell by 0.6 percentage points from the end of the previous year. It is reported that this is the first time that the absolute number of working-age people in China has declined for a long time. This data also means that there has been an inflection point that has been considered "an important factor in creating miracles for China's economic growth - the demographic dividend."

Many people worry that the gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend will affect economic growth. Experts pointed out that this may not be a bad thing. It can form a downward mechanism for accelerating the transformation of economic growth mode and create new opportunities for economic development. At the same time, the potential for secondary development of the demographic dividend is huge, so there is no need for pessimistic interpretation.

The working-age population will decrease

The demographic dividend refers to the economic consequences of changes in the age structure of the population during the demographic transition. Cai Wei, member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics, said that judging whether a country has a demographic dividend depends on two indicators, one is the working-age population; the other is the working-age population as the denominator and others. Age groups such as young and old people as a population to get a population dependency ratio. He pointed out that if the working-age population grows and the population dependency ratio declines, it will bring a demographic dividend, and on the contrary, there will be no demographic dividend.

The “demographic dividend” has contributed a lot to China’s economic growth. According to World Bank estimates, this structural advantage has contributed more than 30% to China's high economic growth. But after the 21st century, the contribution of the demographic dividend began to decrease.

According to the bulletin of the National Bureau of Statistics, at the end of 2012, the working-age population aged 15 to 59 in mainland China was 937.27 million, a decrease of 3.45 million from the end of the previous year, accounting for 69.2% of the total population. At the same time, the proportion of the elderly population continues to climb. In 2012, the population of the country's 60-year-old and above was 193.9 million, accounting for 14.3% of the total population, an increase of 0.59 percentage points from the end of the previous year.

Cai Wei pointed out that the working-age population has decreased and the population dependency ratio has risen accordingly. The birth of the people, the people who eat, the demographic dividend of China will tend to disappear. Ma Jiantang, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, predicts that the working-age population in China will be steadily and gradually reduced at least for a period of at least 2030.

The end of the bonus period is inevitable

What is the reason for the decline in the working-age population? Ma Jiantang said that the deeper reasons for the changes in China's labor force are related to the changes in the birth of China's population. Experts also pointed out that the end of the demographic dividend period is inevitable for economic and social development.

"The trajectory of the demographic transition in mainland China is the same as that of Taiwan and many neighboring countries. It can be seen that it is not the result of a policy of family planning, but the result of economic and social development." Cai Wei said that even if the family planning policy is changed, The release of birth restrictions has not changed the trend of population aging. After releasing the birth restriction, China will not have a particularly significant increase in fertility.

Zhang Mengan, an associate researcher at the World Economic Research Office of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center, believes that international experience shows that all leading countries and regions have benefited more or less from the “demographic dividend” at a certain stage of development. She said that the “demographic dividend” has never been a permanent growth factor. No matter whether it is developed or developing countries, it is impossible to avoid the objective historical necessity of aging itself. With the completion of the demographic transition, this special growth factor will eventually disappear, and the high productivity and high savings rate brought about by the continuous increase in the economically active population will lead to the disappearance of higher capital accumulation.

Don't panic about the bonus turning point

The disappearance of the demographic dividend will lead to a negative situation that hinders economic growth, such as labor shortage, rising labor compensation, and increased social burden. However, it is also beneficial to have all the disadvantages. Experts point out that there is no need to panic about the turning point or even disappearance of the demographic dividend. It may not be a bad thing. On the contrary, it will create new opportunities for economic development.

"The disappearance of China's first demographic dividend is not terrible. Instead, it can become a mechanism for China's economic development transformation and social development transformation." Zhang Monan believes.

The key to transformation is how to shift the mode of economic growth from relying on capital and labor to relying on the improvement of total factor productivity. Drawing on the successful transformation experience of some major economies in the world, Cai Wei said that their experience reminds us that with the gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend and the leap of "Lewis turning point", the source of long-term growth of China's economy will eventually shift to the transformation of growth mode. Rely on technological advancement and productivity improvement.

At the same time, China still has great potential to develop a second demographic dividend. Cai Wei said that this type of demographic dividend includes three main sources. The first is from the demand for pensions and the supply of institutions. If we establish an old-age security system that has an accumulation function rather than relying mainly on family pension functions or pay-as-you-go, we can use the pension expectations of workers, savings motives, and capital market value to maintain a high savings rate. Second, From the expansion of educational resources. As the size and proportion of children and adolescents decrease, the ability of the working-age population to support the population is relatively high, which means that the level of human capital can be greatly improved through the expansion of education and training; the third is the expansion of the labor participation rate.

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