China's naphtha gap may reach 10 million tons in 2015

According to reports, Japan’s METI issued a report saying that due to the rapid growth of China’s ethylene production capacity and the relatively slow growth of naphtha in domestic refineries, it is expected that the import volume of naphtha in China will surge from 2 million tons in 2011 to 750 in 2015. 12 million tons, the actual import volume will vary according to the ethylene production start rate.

According to the 11th Five-Year Development Plan for China 2011-2015, China's ethylene production capacity will increase by 80% during the period from 15.2 million tons at the end of 2011 to 27 million tons/year in 2015. Based on the ethylene utilization rate, the 2015 China Ethylene The output will reach 24.3 million tons. According to conservative estimates by METI, China's ethylene production capacity in 2015 will reach 23.2 million tons per year. Based on the operating rate of 90%, its ethylene production will also reach 20.88 million tons.

In 2011, China’s ethylene production was 14.6 million tons, and naphtha needed 26.4 million tons. Based on this ratio, if China’s ethylene production in 2015 was 24.3 million tons, it would require 44 million tons of naphtha. If calculated according to METI’s conservative estimate of 20.88 million tons of ethylene, 38 million tons of naphtha will be needed.

According to another forecast, China's refining capacity in the same period will increase by 98 million tons per year from 535,000 tons in 2011/year to 637.5 million tons in 2015, an increase of about 20%. According to statistics, in 2011, China's oil refineries processed 460 million tons of crude oil, the refinery load rate was about 85%, and produced 24 million tons of naphtha. If calculated according to this operating rate and naphtha yield, China's stone brain in 2015 The oil production is approximately 29 million tons, and there is a 9 million-ton gap between the 38 million tons demand forecasted by METI and the national naphtha shortfall of 15 million if calculated according to the forecasted demand of 44 million tons in the Eleventh Five-year Development Plan. Ton.

Even considering the use of alternative raw materials such as coal, China still needs to import 75-10 million tons of naphtha in 2015. In addition, the rapid growth of China’s naphtha imports will also lead to a surge in naphtha imports in the Asia-Pacific region in the next few years, that is, from the current annual import volume of 40 million tons to 60 million tons in 2025, so China’s naphtha Supply and demand conditions, alternative raw materials, and changes in refinery production rates will all become a benchmark for the naphtha market in the Asia Pacific region.