Investment points:
1. The mechanical sector market activity in February was lower than the previous period.
In February, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 4.63%, and the SW Machinery Index rose 5.90%. In February, the mechanical sector market performed slightly better than the broader market, but as we predicted in our investment strategy in February, the mechanical sector market was less active than the previous period.
2. In 2008, the machinery industry's prosperity gradually declined.
In 2008, the industrial output value of the machinery industry and the growth rate of sales value increased by 8.6 percentage points from the previous year, which was a low level in the past six years. In 2008, the monthly growth rate of production, sales and exports showed a trend of high and low, especially in the last three months.
3. Prospects for the annual report of listed companies in the machinery industry
As far as the disclosed results are concerned, the total operating income of listed companies in the machinery industry in 2008 and the net profit growth rate attributable to owners of the parent companies have fallen sharply compared with those in 2007. The companies with poor performance accounted for nearly 60% of the listed companies. The loss is increasing. It is expected that the overall performance growth rate of listed companies in the machinery industry will decline in 2008.
4. February Machinery Industry Data Forecast
Regardless of whether it is from top to bottom or bottom to top, the fundamentals of the industry have changed in February. We expect that the growth rate of industrial added value of machinery industry will increase positively in February, and the growth rate will also increase.
5. Machinery sub-sectors rebounded sharply in February PMI
In February, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.0%, up 3.7 percentage points from the previous month. From the comprehensive PMI index and the sub-item PMI index in February, transportation equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, and general equipment manufacturing are significantly higher than other industries, indicating that the machinery industry production and downstream demand may have preceded Other manufacturing industries are beginning to recover.
6. Analysis of key sub-sectors In 2009, the growth trend of special (super) high-voltage power transmission and transformation equipment is still clear, and the prosperity is still at a high level. We maintain its “overweight†rating; due to the increase in investment from infrastructure, the current demand for construction machinery industry has been There are some signs of recovery, and the construction machinery sector is expected to have certain trading opportunities in March.
7. March investment strategy
Looking forward to March, the machinery industry has begun to pick up signs, adjusting the machinery industry rating to “overweightâ€. In the mechanical sector, we believe that the two fine-molecular industries are worthy of attention: the sub-sectors of power transmission and transformation equipment with clear growth in demand in the next two years, especially the special (super) high-voltage related sectors that maintain rapid growth; driven by infrastructure investment and suitable for the industry During the peak season of sales, it is expected that there will be an improvement in the construction machinery sub-sector in February and March. For listed companies, the focus is on leading companies in the above two sub-sectors.
8. Risk
The uncertainty of China's macroeconomic recovery is that the prices of raw materials (mainly steel) have rebounded sharply, which has reduced the profitability of the industry.
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