Metals report news, analysts said, the prospects for zinc and nickel market in 2011 bleak.
The increase in zinc production led to ample inventory, so the zinc price in 2011 is difficult to pick up. Although nickel has the potential for a supply gap, the commissioning of several new projects may prevent this from happening. Deutsche Bank analyst Daniel Brebner said that both nickel and zinc are worse.
Gayle Berry, an analyst at Barclays Bank, said last year that the zinc market was simply not optimistic. The zinc market is abundant and it is estimated that it will only increase slightly in the first half of 2011. Most analysts estimate that the zinc price in 2011 is between 2348 and 2720 USD/t. Only Goldman Sachs estimates that the average zinc price in 2011 will exceed US$3,000/t. In 2010, the increase in galvanized sheet production led to a significant increase in zinc supply in 2011.
The current LME zinc inventory is 700,000 tons, which is the highest in six years. Shanghai Stock Exchange's inventory has reached a high of 299,000 t. The metal consulting company Brook Hunt said that the surplus of zinc market will expand to 461,000 tons in 2011, and the surplus volume will decrease in 2012. Brebner said that the zinc market will be better in 2012, and supply growth will slow down. China's industrial restructuring and elimination of outdated production capacity will limit the development of the zinc industry. Macquarie analyst Jim Lennon believes that the construction industry in countries outside China has not recovered and hopes to recover at some point. Maybe the demand for galvanized sheet and zinc will recover in 2012~2013.
According to BNP Paribas, the overall nickel market demand in 2010 is very good, but in 2011 the nickel market demand will slow down significantly, and the increase is only 5%. According to the International Recycling Bureau, 70% of nickel demand comes from stainless steel. In 2010, global stainless steel output increased to 30 million tons, and in 2009 it was 24 million tons. It is expected that the growth momentum in 2011 will slow down.
Brook Hunt said that after experiencing the oversupply situation in the past three years, the nickel market supply gap in 2010 was approximately 68,000 t. However, there may not be a gap in 2011 because of the resumption of sealed mines. BNP Paribas stated that even if it is conservatively estimated that the increase in output of finished nickel will reach 18% next year, there will be a considerable surplus in nickel market supply. Goldman Sachs believes that nickel prices have fallen sharply. risks of.
Goldman Sachs believes that the average spot nickel price in 2011 is 19,500 US dollars / t. Scotiabank expects the average nickel price to be US$22046/t, and Societe Generale expects the average nickel price to be US$26,290/t. Norilsk, the world's largest nickel producer, has announced that its Johnston Lake and Nickel mine in western Australia will resume production in the first half of 2011, and the mine will stop production in 2009.
The Ambatovy mine in Madagascar is expected to become the world’s largest laterite nickel mine in 2013–2014 and will begin production in 2011. Xstrata’s $3.8 billion Koniambo project in New Caledonia will also begin operations this year. Vale's factories in the ports of Sudbury and Colborne have settled, and two nickel projects in New Caledonia and Brazil will also start production in 2011.
The increase in zinc production led to ample inventory, so the zinc price in 2011 is difficult to pick up. Although nickel has the potential for a supply gap, the commissioning of several new projects may prevent this from happening. Deutsche Bank analyst Daniel Brebner said that both nickel and zinc are worse.
Gayle Berry, an analyst at Barclays Bank, said last year that the zinc market was simply not optimistic. The zinc market is abundant and it is estimated that it will only increase slightly in the first half of 2011. Most analysts estimate that the zinc price in 2011 is between 2348 and 2720 USD/t. Only Goldman Sachs estimates that the average zinc price in 2011 will exceed US$3,000/t. In 2010, the increase in galvanized sheet production led to a significant increase in zinc supply in 2011.
The current LME zinc inventory is 700,000 tons, which is the highest in six years. Shanghai Stock Exchange's inventory has reached a high of 299,000 t. The metal consulting company Brook Hunt said that the surplus of zinc market will expand to 461,000 tons in 2011, and the surplus volume will decrease in 2012. Brebner said that the zinc market will be better in 2012, and supply growth will slow down. China's industrial restructuring and elimination of outdated production capacity will limit the development of the zinc industry. Macquarie analyst Jim Lennon believes that the construction industry in countries outside China has not recovered and hopes to recover at some point. Maybe the demand for galvanized sheet and zinc will recover in 2012~2013.
According to BNP Paribas, the overall nickel market demand in 2010 is very good, but in 2011 the nickel market demand will slow down significantly, and the increase is only 5%. According to the International Recycling Bureau, 70% of nickel demand comes from stainless steel. In 2010, global stainless steel output increased to 30 million tons, and in 2009 it was 24 million tons. It is expected that the growth momentum in 2011 will slow down.
Brook Hunt said that after experiencing the oversupply situation in the past three years, the nickel market supply gap in 2010 was approximately 68,000 t. However, there may not be a gap in 2011 because of the resumption of sealed mines. BNP Paribas stated that even if it is conservatively estimated that the increase in output of finished nickel will reach 18% next year, there will be a considerable surplus in nickel market supply. Goldman Sachs believes that nickel prices have fallen sharply. risks of.
Goldman Sachs believes that the average spot nickel price in 2011 is 19,500 US dollars / t. Scotiabank expects the average nickel price to be US$22046/t, and Societe Generale expects the average nickel price to be US$26,290/t. Norilsk, the world's largest nickel producer, has announced that its Johnston Lake and Nickel mine in western Australia will resume production in the first half of 2011, and the mine will stop production in 2009.
The Ambatovy mine in Madagascar is expected to become the world’s largest laterite nickel mine in 2013–2014 and will begin production in 2011. Xstrata’s $3.8 billion Koniambo project in New Caledonia will also begin operations this year. Vale's factories in the ports of Sudbury and Colborne have settled, and two nickel projects in New Caledonia and Brazil will also start production in 2011.
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