The reduction in aluminum prices at home and abroad will benefit exports for more than a week. London Aluminum continued to experience strong declines in inventory and tight spot supplies, and its price continued to strengthen. Last week, London's aluminum has risen by a total of 71 US dollars for a week, and the K-line has formed a pattern of "one positive cover and two negative" on the K-line. The characteristics of strong technology are obvious. Since the beginning of this year, LME aluminum stocks have been declining from 1.45 million tons. As of last week, 12,025 tons have been written off. Therefore, late-stage stocks are expected to decline further, which will support the futures price. In terms of demand, with Japan and the United States at the center, demand for aluminum raw materials in the electronics and auto parts industry is very strong. On the supply side, coupled with China's restrained economic overheating, domestic production is at the same level as last year at the most. Therefore, industry insiders predict that there will be 30,000-500,000 tons globally this year. The supply is insufficient. This will form a strong support for the medium-term trend of international aluminum prices. Technically, this week London's aluminum should be able to stabilize at more than 1700, and then it will be possible to challenge the strong resistance zone around 1720-1730. Shanghai Aluminum, led by strong aluminum prices in London, continued to maintain its upward momentum last week. However, due to pressure from a huge domestic inventory pressure, Shanghai Aluminum opened higher on Friday and the price fell slightly. After returning this week, Shanghai Aluminum's trend continued its downward trend on Friday. It continued to shrink for two consecutive days and the price fell slightly. On the 22nd, after the opening of the main contract, the AL410 contract, opened at 15930, the price remained at a narrow range around the 15950 level. The afternoon session saw a slight drop. The market reached a low of 15870, and the market gradually recovered to 15970, and the price fell 40 points. Only 10,396 lots were traded throughout the day. The change in positions was not much to 35048 lots. From the daily morphological point of view, the recent date price has been circling around 16,000. The period price is intertwined with the short-term moving average system, indicating that the current market short-term trend is not clear and is currently being supported by the 10-day moving average. Technical indicators: The long-term trend line of "long and short-term indicators" has been back pressure on the short-term trend line, indicating that the current market is still in a weak overall operation. The rate index of the "rate of change" index is intertwined with the moving average of the rate index, indicating that the overall activity of the market is weakened and the market sentiment is relatively light. From the perspective of the weekly chart, the entities of the weekly line that stayed closer to 5 weeks stayed in the lateral consolidation around 16,000, indicating that the midline trend of prices has no obvious direction. In terms of domestic fundamentals, the current huge inventory and adequate cash supply are heavily undermining the current price, and spot dealers are “becoming priceless†and become a major resistance to the current upward trend in aluminum prices. With the London aluminum futures prices sharply rising, the Shanghai aluminum futures price performance is weak, and the premiums of the two cities are gradually shrinking. If the export tax rebates still maintain 8% in the later period, when the premium is reduced to a certain extent, it will promote a large outflow of domestic aluminum ingots. To a certain extent, the pressure on domestic stocks will be reduced. Therefore, under the premise that the demand for the entire international environment remains good, the domestic aluminum price trend remains positive. However, in the short term, Shanghai Aluminum will still find it difficult to get rid of the constraints of inventory pressure. In the next 1 and 2 months, the price will have It may continue to fluctuate above and below 16000. Operation is recommended to operate between.
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