Interpretation of China's PV On-grid Price

After experiencing the prosperity of 2010, the photovoltaic industry experienced a deceleration in growth in 2011. With the substantial increase in supply in the past year, the pressure on China's domestic photovoltaic industry has increased dramatically.

However, since May 2011, the domestic policy of favoring photovoltaics has continued. First, Qinghai Province gave an electricity price of 1.15 yuan/kWh to the power station built before September 30, 2011. Shortly thereafter, on July 24th, the Development and Reform Commission's Price Department issued a document to launch China's first nationally applicable photovoltaic grid. Fixed on-grid tariff.

1. Quick interpretation of the document [1] No. 1594 of the development and reform price [1]. Formulate a nationwide unified benchmark on-grid tariff for solar photovoltaic power generation. According to the average social investment and operating costs, with reference to the bidding price of solar photovoltaic power plants, and the status of China's solar energy resources, a nationwide benchmark on-grid tariff is applied to non-bidding solar photovoltaic power generation projects.

Explicit subsidies (1) Solar photovoltaic power generation projects approved before July 1, 2011, completed and put into production on December 31, 2011, and our committee has not yet approved the price, and the on-grid tariff is uniformly approved at 1.15 yuan per kilowatt-hour (tax included, Same as below).

The solution to the problem of “historical issues” and the introduction of on-grid tariffs will provide a solution to the long-delayed “roads” project's profitability approaches, and to a certain extent ensure the interests of these project investors.

(II) Solar photovoltaic power generation projects approved on or after July 1, 2011, and solar photovoltaic power generation projects approved before July 1, 2011 but not yet completed and put into operation as of December 31, 2011, except for Tibet With the on-grid tariff of 1.15 yuan per kWh, the on-grid tariffs of other provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) are all implemented at the rate of 1 yuan per kilowatt-hour. In the future, the Committee will make timely adjustments based on factors such as changes in investment costs and technological progress.

The on-grid tariffs for newly approved projects have been established, and in principle, it is stipulated that the on-grid tariffs will be gradually adjusted in the future, and the pricing policy will be laid down in the future.

Second, through the concession tender to determine the owners of solar photovoltaic power generation projects, its on-grid electricity prices are executed according to the bid price, the bid price shall not be higher than the solar photovoltaic power generation benchmark price.

Explain the electricity price of the concession project; the concession project concession project is a demonstration project of the relevant policy-making organs such as the National Development and Reform Commission, the Energy Bureau, and the Ministry of Finance to explore the subsidy method and subsidy price for renewable energy. In the wind power sector, there are a total of six concession projects that have taken nearly six years. From the document, we have seen that the concession project will not cease due to the launch of this PV on-grid tariff. From this perspective, the related ministries and commissions will continue to explore the reasonable PV on-grid price, and this time the PV on-grid tariff seems to be more like a “temporary” price.

3. For solar photovoltaic power generation projects that enjoy financial subsidy from the Central Government, their on-grid power supply shall be executed according to the on-grid tariffs of local benchmarked coal-fired units.

Explain the electricity price issue of the Golden Sun project that has been or is approved;

4. The part of the on-grid electricity price of solar photovoltaic power generation projects that is higher than the benchmark on-grid tariff of local off-going coal-fired generating units is still in accordance with the relevant provisions of the "Trial Measures for the Management of Renewable Energy Power Generation Prices and Expenses" (Drafted and Reformed Price [2006] No. 7). Resolving the problem of subsidy sources of funding through the nationally imposed additional renewable energy tariffs solves the issue; the renewable energy price still comes from the country. Note: There is no mention of renewable energy special funds.

From the interpretation of the policy, we have seen a very positive signal, that is, the National Development and Reform Commission as the upper-level department of the National Energy Administration, after leading the introduction of the photovoltaic on-grid tariff, solved many historical issues of the investment income of the “Road” project. The preliminary design of the photovoltaic power price of the new project has been made, which will pave the way for the launch of a more comprehensive on-grid tariff in the future.

It can be expected that, with China's never-missed "big regiment operations" and "concentrated assaults" to complete the project's experience, various energy companies and photovoltaic companies will surely take advantage of this policy breeze to quickly declare , assault construction photovoltaic project. Taking Golmud City in Qinghai as an example, the "930" news came out, dozens of projects were started at the same time, nearly 500 trillion projects were built together (and many projects were under review), and the number of construction workers was thousands. It was spectacular.

The nationwide application of the PV on-grid tariff policy will surely bring about a “PVD” in PV investment!

2. The question raised by the price of [2011] No. 1594, but the price of the document [1] No. 1594 alone, still gives us doubts about many issues:

The number of years of subsidy documents does not give any explanation on the number of years of subsidies for on-grid tariffs, but we all know that the difference in the rate of return on investments that will be made to investors for 10 years and 20 years.

Without considering the differences in resources across regions, different subsidized electricity prices are not given for different resource conditions. Instead, a uniform price is given in a “one size fits all” approach. From a profit perspective, for new projects, the 1 yuan/kWh subsidy is more suitable for photovoltaic power plants in regions with better sunshine conditions in western China.

Without considering the differences in installation methods, similar to 2, the price policy also did not consider the difference in system costs brought about by different installation methods. Regardless of whether it is a roof project or an optoelectronic building integration project, the unit construction cost is often much higher than that of large-scale ground projects. Therefore, the 1 yuan/kWh subsidy seems to be more likely to encourage the development of ground-based photovoltaic power plants.

Sources of Funding Sources of Funding Although the document mentions a problem that cannot be ignored, it is a “renewable energy price-addition” fund account. Due to the rapid growth of wind power installed capacity in previous years, it has been in deficit in 2010. And in the short term, the account will still be at a loss. In the estimation made by IHS Isuppli earlier this year, even though the NDRC increased the “renewable energy price surcharge” from the current 4 PCT/kWh to 8 PCT/kWh in early 2012, due to the increase in wind power installed capacity and the improvement of grid connection conditions. This part of the funds will still be occupied by a large amount of wind power during 2012 to 2014. It is in a state of barely balanced expenditures. This does not take into account the use of surpluses in these years to make up for the loss of the accounts left over from history. If it is considered to make up for the losses left over from history, the "Renewable Energy Price Additions" will continue to lose money until the end of 2015.

In addition, another part of the subsidy for photovoltaic installations comes from the Ministry of Finance's “Special Fund for Renewable Energy,” and subsidies for “photovoltaic building” and “Golden Sun” come here. The document does not state that the short-term fixed-grid electricity price gap can occupy the country's "renewable energy special fund", and certainly does not explicitly indicate that it cannot be occupied. The problem is that “renewable energy price additions” already have a loss, but if the subsidy for electricity price of newly built projects is made up by taking up “renewable energy special funds”, what will happen to this year's “Golden Sun” project subsidy? Of course, perhaps the National Development and Reform Commission has already coordinated with the Ministry of Finance to provide more special funds for photovoltaics in 2011 to solve this problem.

Grid-connected issues and grid-connected issues have always been an important factor constraining the development of renewable energy in China. Wind power has achieved 44.7 GW of installed capacity by the end of 2010, but only 31.1 GW can be connected to the grid, and this 31.1 GW is also in a controllable state. When required, the grid company can request that some fans be shut down to ensure stable grid operation. .

At present, Golmud’s “photovoltaic fever” has caused power grid companies to temporarily decide to erect a 330-kilovolt power grid in Golmud to match the construction of photovoltaic power plants. It is expected that the project will be completed by surprise on September 30th.

The “723” EMU accident tells us that not all projects can be completed in quality and quantity under the circumstance of rushing progress. The construction progress of the project has certain inherent rules that can be followed, and grid construction is also the same. Golmud will only be a microcosm of the country. It will apply the fixed-grid fixed-grid tariffs nationwide. How many "Golmud" will appear in the country within a short period of five months? Grid companies will be able to "work" out the number of quality and quantity of the grid to ensure power transmission? If the project is not online, what is the significance of the fixed on-grid tariff policy?

Conclusion From the above analysis, we can get the following conclusions 1. The launch of the fixed on-grid tariff is a very positive signal, showing the country's support for the development of the domestic PV terminal market;

2. The details of fixed on-grid tariffs have yet to be issued, otherwise, document 1594 will be difficult to make a difference;

3. With reference to the profitability of the "Road" project left over from history mentioned in the document No. 1594, the confidence of the domestic photovoltaic industry will be greatly boosted, and the domestic "photovoltaic heat" will be further ignited. China's 2011 PV installation capacity may exceed 1.5GW (Note: Not equivalent to grid-connected capacity);

4. The concession project will continue to be carried out in the future. Relatively high fixed on-grid tariffs (compared with wind power and biomass energy), declining “renewable energy price surcharge” account and continuous decline in the construction cost of photovoltaic power plants, making 1 The fixed on-grid tariff of yuan/kWh was adjusted to become inevitable in the short term.

5. The policy is more conducive to large-scale terrestrial photovoltaic power stations in the western region, while in the eastern and central regions, due to the limitation of sunshine radiation resources, the profitability conditions are still not satisfactory under the condition of 1 yuan/kWh. For roof projects and photovoltaic building integration projects, due to construction cost reasons, it will also be difficult to fully benefit from the subsidy policy. Of course, the specific project's profitability needs specific analysis. It is believed that there are many potential roof projects that are capable of achieving certain profits in the case of 1 yuan/kWh.

6. From past experience, the investment of large-scale ground power stations has always been dominated by state-owned power groups. From 5, we can see that this on-grid tariff will benefit more large-scale terrestrial photovoltaic power stations in the western region, and further, it will benefit more as a power group for developers. Of course, private enterprises can also benefit, but I believe that more revenue will be in cooperation with the power group. Private enterprises that develop their own power plants will, of course, benefit if they have a certain level of financial strength and get a project. For photovoltaic companies aiming to develop photovoltaic projects on their own, at least the introduction of electricity prices will allow enterprises to consume part of their production capacity. From this perspective, even if the power station project is not profitable, it will make sense for photovoltaic companies.

Some concerns:

The successful implementation of Document 1594 requires cross-functional collaboration. Not only the Development and Reform Commission, but also the Energy Bureau, the Ministry of Finance, and the grid company are the key to the implementation of policies and the benefits of photovoltaic power plant-related companies. It is believed that prior to the launch of Document 1594, the Price Division of the National Development and Reform Commission has already consulted with other branches of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau extensively with relevant ministries and commissions, such as the Ministry of Finance and the grid company, and received support from various parties concerned.

But here, IHS Isuppli still has some worries, I do not know what the actual situation will develop. It is hoped that the Wenwen Development Price [2011] No. 1594 Wenwen can truly become a pinch-out agent in the domestic PV terminal market, allowing our country's PV market to get a quick start and make the PV “crazy”.

It also slightly changes the situation that our domestic PV companies have long faced in controlling the market, and achieved two-legged walks, instead of relying solely on product exports to solve the problem of corporate survival.

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