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Development and Reform Commission Energy Institute Hu Runqing.
The Institute of Emerging Industries will be held in Chengdu on September 17, 2013. Sina Finance will broadcast the entire forum. According to Hu Runqing, the Energy Development Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, but from the perspective of the development trend of the domestic market, although the entire industry and government have high expectations for the rapid development of the photovoltaic market, we must also see the rapid development of the domestic market, as well as constraints. .
The following is a speech record:
Hu Runqing: Good morning everyone! Today, I mainly share with you the domestic photovoltaic policy and distributed photovoltaic opportunities. There are mainly market goals and domestic policies that will be briefly mentioned. Because I think from the policy point of view, there are many online discussions and I would like to share with you the opportunities and challenges of distributed photovoltaics.
In the domestic photovoltaic market, as we all know, in the past, the Chinese market was dominated by large-scale power plants. From the perspective of cumulative installed capacity, large-scale power plants accounted for more than half. However, from the perspective of new installed capacity last year, the distribution has far exceeded the large-scale power plants and become the mainstream of the market. From the perspective of the general market situation, we feel that the domestic market has been in an outbreak for the past two years, and this situation will continue to be maintained. The National Development and Reform Commission has just adjusted the planning and development goals at the beginning of this year. For the development goals of photovoltaics, the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†renewable energy development goals mentioned last year were mentioned as 25 GW, 35 GW have been mentioned this year, and 2013 During the three years of 2015, from the perspective of government guidance, we hope to add 10 GW each year. Large-scale power plants and distributed photovoltaics should basically be distributed in half.
Judging from the trend of the domestic market, the cost has been rapidly declining. Recently, in some parts of the southeastern coast, it has been able to evaluate the use of batteries to access the Internet. However, from the perspective of the development trend of the domestic market, although the entire industry and government have high expectations for the rapid development of the photovoltaic market, at the same time we must also see the rapid development of the domestic market also has constraints. I want to talk about large-scale wars first. We can easily compare them with wind power. I think everybody in the wind power sees it. Now that wind power has a lot of problems, we must also consider when building large-scale photovoltaic power stations. We must also be cautious in this respect. consider. It takes time to build the grid, which is much longer than building a photovoltaic power plant. Because of the planning and construction of the power grid, even if it can be constructed in accordance with the state's regulations for the development of renewable energy and implemented in accordance with the plan, we can see that the goals of photovoltaic and wind power have been greatly improved, so it is very difficult to construct power grids. Keep up with the rapid development of wind power and photovoltaics.
In addition, the consumption problem is a relatively big problem. After grid-connected, it is also possible that your electricity will be sent, but you cannot send it out. That is to say, it is not just the problem of grid connection. Now, the elimination of the three northern regions is a big problem. We provide wind power for heating in the north. The night in winter is the period of large-scale wind power generation. However, due to the heating time, we must guarantee the stage of production. This will greatly inhibit the power generation of wind power. Therefore, we use various methods to explore how to improve the capacity of wind power. For photovoltaics, this problem may be better because photovoltaics generate electricity at peak power during the day.
But at the same time, in the northwestern region, when building a large-scale power plant, I'm afraid we must seriously consider this issue. The grid connection of some power stations is also solved, but there may be no problem at this stage. However, if you look at the later period, if there are many large-scale photovoltaic power plants around, it may be similar to wind power problems after three years or five years. Therefore, when the power station is built, I think this should be taken into consideration. This is also a relatively large constraint factor that may exist for the rapid development of large-scale photovoltaic power plants in the country.
For distributed networks, the on-grid tariff is something that everyone has been looking forward to, and now it is solved. For distributed, it is not just the solution to the on-grid tariff, but there are many other issues that I will specifically talk about. Everyone's expectations are high, but the development of the market may have certain constraints, requiring everyone to work together. There is also the issue of subsidy funds. Everyone hopes that the higher the subsidy funds, the better. As a country, there is a certain plate.
Now the price of electricity is greatly increased, but in general, there is still a certain limit on the price of electricity. From the perspective of development, the previous speaker also mentioned that there is a huge market for the development of photovoltaic industry, and we very much agree with it. From the standpoint of development, large-scale power plants and distributed development are the targets of China's development of the market. Various departments now attach great importance to the development of the photovoltaic industry. The State Council, the Energy Administration, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the State Grid Corporation of China, and the local governments are all implementing a series of policies. It should be said that the State Council has also met several times to develop the photovoltaic industry. Pay attention. In addition, from the State Department, the document is very concerned about the suppression of the expansion of production capacity and promote the merger and reorganization of enterprises.
From the perspective of the power station, it is necessary to rationalize the layout, monitor it locally, digest it locally and advance it in an orderly manner. From the point of view of distribution, it should be said that the support is still very large, and we must vigorously explore, and we must carry out demonstration areas, but also encourage the opening of distributed power construction. At the same time, the implementation of the filing system, from the management level to simplify the decentralization and promote the development of distributed. In addition, the State Council's documents also specify tariff subsidies for 20 years. This is a question that has always been asked in the past and is now clear. At the same time, the levy standards have been adjusted to expand the funds for the development of renewable energy on a large scale. In this case, the State Council's documents mentioned a lot of content and also had a good direction. In fact, the State Council's documents, in fact, every sentence, such as the implementation of the filing system, require the relevant departments to have a detailed implementation document to support. In this case, the documents from the State Department indicate the direction, but from the point of view that the market can truly be operational, more concrete efforts must be made in all aspects. Photovoltaic incentive policy, from the initial policy to promote investment subsidies, fixed electricity prices, and now the industry is still relatively active in the price policy, distribution is to give a 4.2-point subsidy, the development of the entire industry has a very big role in promoting.
I want to talk about the potential of distribution. Now the industry has done more in industrial and commercial construction. This is the focus of development. In terms of current policies, because the user's electricity price is high, the economy is also relatively good, and from a single project, the scale is relatively large and easy. Development. However, there are also some problems in it, because in the past, commercial and industrial buildings were all projects with more than megawatts, and they will become smaller and smaller. The scale to be developed in the next stage will be smaller and smaller, and the big roof will come more and more. The harder to find. At the same time, as large-scale commercial and commercial buildings are generally involved in the development of third parties, business models still have a certain degree of difficulty.
Another market that is currently neglected in China is the household system. This is not the same as in China because foreign countries offer very favorable on-grid tariffs for small-scale systems, and Germany is a user whose electricity prices are higher than those of industry. In our country, this market is only at an early stage. However, we can see that a small number of families have already started implementation. There is one in Qingdao, one in Beijing, and one in Shanghai.
But from our point of view, the potential of this market is actually very great. If we say that from the point of view of large-scale investment projects, that is, we have to invest in a project, we must make a loan from a bank to invest in this project to calculate the profitability rate. The current state policy is not applicable to household systems because households use The price of electricity is too low. Small household systems, for example, are measured in terms of 5 kW projects, because small rooftops cannot be built particularly large.
As a five-kilowatt project, if it is calculated at 9,000 yuan per kilowatt, it only needs 45,000 investment. As a family, you don't need to borrow from a bank. It's good to pay for your own home. In this way, according to the current policy, according to the Beijing 4.9 angle, the annual income can reach about 4500 yuan.
A year's income can reach 4,500 yuan, which is equal to 10% of the income. If you consider it from the perspective of family financial management, the return is about 10%. For families, it should be said that this is better than depositing banks and financial products are stable. If this market is changed from an angle, as a large investor, it may not be of interest, but as a small and medium-sized town, or an independent user, it is actually a very good financial model. However, this project is relatively small. There is no large company to intervene. The family does it by itself. It is very important that the service system is needed to support this project.
The current management system does not apply. The project application, filing system, and grid-connected system must be greatly simplified to support the development of this market. We can also see that its realization has already discovered such business opportunities in some companies, and some companies have begun to provide some support services in this market. Including system integration, to help users to design and install, and finally to the grid, to provide this set of procedures for services, there are companies doing, this is a relatively large market. However, there are some problems in it. I think the potential of this market is very large.
From the current challenges faced by the photovoltaic market, it should be said that compared to large-scale power plants, including the market, the challenges will be more, because the entire system is a part of a lot, involves many aspects, for a small investor He will face even greater challenges, including grid connection, economic aspects, project approval, investment and financing, and capacity building. First of all, talk about grid-connected, and the net has basically achieved a breakthrough. The introduction of the grid-connected network to simplify the program management measures for the distributed project has a great role in promoting, but now Nanzhou jurisdiction has not seen the specific area The implementation of the document, whether it can be implemented into the country is a problem.
The funding subsidy is a very big problem for developers, and the subsidy funds lag behind and cause the company's cash flow to be very difficult. Now the country is committed to doing some repairs in this area, the introduction of relevant management documents, the most important thing is the proportion of electricity price increase, the pool of money is full, for the project subsidies, I expect should be able to more timely payment of subsidies. The Energy Bureau is promoting the construction of the PV demonstration area. Since September last year, it has started to promote this work. It should be said that 18 demonstration areas have been finalized in September this year. We have also seen that according to the documents issued by the Energy Bureau, the total installation of the 18 demonstration areas in 2013 will add up to 800,000 kilowatts.
You see that the country’s market goal is 10 million a year. If 50% is distributed, it is equivalent to 5 million. It is not enough to rely on these demonstration zones. I think that the most important thing for the state to promote the work of the demonstration area is to explore some aspects of the management model, investment and financing platform construction, and be able to have greater benefits in promotion and application. The business model should be a very important part of distributed applications. In the past, it may be more about the energy contract management model. In fact, this is actually the grid company opened, because the grid company was opened, so the grid company’s The attitude is not so coordinated.
Is it possible to discuss a new model of tripartite cooperation, because now, in fact, in the energy management contract, the developers face a big problem is the problem of late electricity charges, if the electricity is rented to the roof, I power users to it If you cannot pay the electricity bill on time, the developer is actually not having any means and there is no guarantee to guarantee the collection of electricity charges. These three parties can not co-operate together. The collection of electricity charges is still charged by the grid company according to the usual electricity tariff collection mode. The amount of money that should be acquired by the PV developer is transferred by the grid company. I think so, the entire grid. The charging mechanism will be more complete. For developers, income will be more secure. There are some places in this model, and we may also have started trying them, but the attitude of power companies is also more critical. From the State Grid, in general, there is no clear expression and whether this model supports or opposes it. But from the perspective of local companies, we can see that there has been some progress.
The issue of investment and financing is also a relatively large problem faced by the current distribution, because distributed projects as a third party investment more, business model is not clear, this is plagued everyone's larger problem. Small scale, big companies are not interested, and the main force is small and medium-sized companies. This is a good thing, and it is also an important part of supporting distributed applications abroad. It is very difficult for an outside company to gain an absolute control in this market. It may be that more support is the development of local SMEs. This also faces a problem. The financing costs of SMEs are relatively high, and financing is also relatively difficult. Now all parties are also exploring new financing models and financial service products, including microfinance, including project equity investment, and project secured loans. These are now being explored. From the perspective of CDB, they are also trying to support the work of the demonstration park. They cooperate with local governments and demonstration parks to build a financing service platform and support the investment and financing of small and medium-sized enterprises through on-lending.
Risk control is also an issue that we often talk about. When a distributed project has a life span of 20 years, who can guarantee that the following power users and companies can reach 20 years of life, who can guarantee that my photovoltaic cell products and power generation can reach 20 years. So there is insurance product now in the design process.
Technical issues, I would like to show you a few pictures, you can also look at the technical problems facing it. This is a new construction. Its support and system design are implemented synchronously with the building. This is a roof-mounted photovoltaic system. We can see the two systems, the design of the bracket is completely two concepts, a very simple, a very strong or how. However, we can see that for the entire system design of photovoltaic systems, in fact, we do not have a standard, we may according to their own needs, will be very solid frame, can also be made very light. One problem that is reflected in this is that we do not have a standard that is really suitable to support everyone in doing this. Including other technical problems existing in the grid connection, etc., are all challenges faced by this distributed development. There are also management issues. How each party forms a joint force to implement the policy, and it has great impact on distributed development. influences. thank you all!
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