Will the glass prices rise in the third quarter?

The change in glass prices is in line with our judgment on ordinary glass prices in the second quarter of the March 30 glass industry report. After the price of glass was reduced in the previous period, the inventory at the micro level has decreased significantly, and the stabilization in the second quarter has been the main reason. Falling space.

The short-term change in glass prices does not affect the investment logic of our recommended glass stocks: The ordinary glass industry has experienced a high level of economic prosperity in 2010 and is facing pressure from production capacity in the second half of 2010. Therefore, the change in the prosperity of the glass industry is not determined by the glass stocks. The decisive factor, but supportive factor, will be guaranteed because of the large growth in the performance of glass stocks in 2010. From the perspective of the first quarter, the two major glass companies have announced a substantial increase in pre-increase: CSG increased by 369% year-on-year; Increased by more than 500%. On the one hand, due to the historic downturn of the industry in the same period of last year, on the other hand, although the glass industry experienced a significant decline in March of this year, the industry's profit margin remained at a relatively high level in the same period of history.

In the ordinary glass industry performance does not become a negative factor to invest in glass stocks, but support factors (of course, is not a decisive factor), we believe that the two companies have relatively smooth investment logic: CSG: Low-E glass Will become the glass industry has a long-term investment highlights, with the continuous upgrading of housing consumption, the sensitivity of the use of LOW-E glass will be further reduced, LOW-E glass itself can achieve rapid growth in the future, such as In the current context of building energy conservation with relevant policies, it is icing on the cake, and the future growth rate will be faster. CSG is undoubtedly the most profitable enterprise in this segment. In addition, the solar energy business is currently at the bottom and there are signs of gradual recovery. . We continue to recommend CSG. We maintain CSG’s EPS forecast for 2010 to 2011 at 1.0 and 1.3 yuan. We maintain our target price of 30.00 yuan in the next 6-12 months, which is equivalent to 30 times PE in 2010 and 23 times PE in 2011.

Jinjing Science and Technology (12.25,0.00,0.00%): Soda ash business is a major highlight of the company this year. According to the current soda ash price, the company’s monthly soda ash contribution profit is forecast to be around 20 million, and will gradually be released with the amount of downstream glass (its With the positive correlation with glass production, soda ash can maintain a high degree of prosperity; the company's ultra-white glass can also become a bright spot for the company as in previous years, especially in the field of solar energy; in addition, we are also actively concerned about whether Jinjing Technology listed companies will Like other mainstream glass companies, it is strategically involved in the glass deep processing industry, especially the LOW-E glass market with a large market space in the future. (At present, major glass companies such as CSG, Xinyi, and Taiwan Glass have formed certain advantages in the LOW-E glass market.) We maintain Jin Jing Technology's EPS forecast for 2010-2011 at 0.79 and 1.22 yuan, and maintain recommended investment recommendations.