Foreign investment in foreign investment is high
In 2018, in the face of rising global trade protectionism and unilateralism, the world economic uncertainty has increased, China has intensified its reform and opening up, and adopted a series of measures to “stable foreign trade†and “stable foreign investment†and achieved good results. The total volume of foreign trade imports and exports and the actual use of foreign capital have all reached record highs. In 2018, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports was 30.51 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%. Among them, exports were 16.42 trillion yuan, up 7.1%; imports were 14.09 trillion yuan, up 12.9%. From January to December 2018, 60,533 foreign-invested enterprises were newly established nationwide, a year-on-year increase of 69.8%; the actual use of foreign capital was 885.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. In 2019, the downward pressure on China's economy will increase and the global economic growth will slow down. The pressure on China's foreign trade and foreign investment will also increase. Measures to stabilize foreign trade and stabilize foreign investment will be further deepened. (Zhang Xing)
In 2018, China's foreign trade achieved a transcript of “a record highâ€.
According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on January 14, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports in 2018 was 30.51 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, setting a new record.
The recovery of external demand brought about by the continued growth of China’s major trading partners’ economy, the steady growth of China’s economy and the expansion of import policies, as well as the “selling out†effect of some enterprises, coupled with the effect of China’s “stable foreign trade†measures, The rapid growth of China's foreign trade in 2018.
However, foreign trade data in the fourth quarter of 2018, especially in December, showed signs of fatigue: following the sharp decline in November, foreign trade data in December last year fell again to a negative growth range. In December, China’s foreign trade was 2,674.87 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year. . The economic prosperity of many countries has weakened, the effect of “selling the export†is coming to an end, and the downward pressure on the domestic economy is the main reason.
Looking forward to 2019, affected by factors such as the slow recovery of the global economy, the depreciation of emerging economies, and the Sino-US economic and trade frictions, this year's foreign trade is facing a more complicated and grim situation. The downward pressure is relatively high. It is expected that the growth rate of foreign trade may continue to slow this year. There is a need to be highly vigilant about the overlapping of national economic downturns, financial market turmoil and trade protectionism.
Foreign trade broke through 30 trillion for the first time
According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, in 2018, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports was 30.51 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%. Among them, exports were 16.42 trillion yuan, up 7.1%; imports were 14.09 trillion yuan, up 12.9%. In dollar terms, in 2018, China’s foreign trade import and export value totaled 4.62 trillion US dollars, up 12.6%; of which, exports were 2.48 trillion US dollars, up 9.9%; imports were 2.14 trillion US dollars, up 15.8%.
At the press conference of the State Council Office on January 14, Li Kuiwen, spokesman of the General Administration of Customs, pointed out that China’s foreign trade value exceeded 10 trillion yuan in 2005 and more than 20 trillion yuan in 2010, and then re-created in 2018. The new high exceeded 30 trillion yuan.
He said that in 2018, China's foreign trade scale showed a "seasonal improvement" characteristics: in the first quarter of this year, China's import and export scale was 6.76 trillion yuan, 7.36 trillion yuan, 8.18 trillion yuan and 8.21 trillion yuan respectively.
Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told the 21st Century Economic Reporter that in 2018 China's foreign trade achieved a brilliant report card. From the perspective of external demand, the world economy as a whole maintained a recovery trend last year. China and its major trading partners have maintained good growth in imports and exports, while also expanding new markets.
In 2018, China's import and export of the top three trading partners EU, the United States and ASEAN increased by 7.9%, 5.7% and 11.2% respectively, which together accounted for 41.2% of China's total import and export value. In the same period, China's total imports and exports along the “Belt and Road†countries totaled 8.37 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.3%.
"In the context of the recovery of external demand, most countries have maintained a good growth rate. For example, in 2018, Vietnam's exports increased by 14.3%, and imports also increased by 12.5%." Bai Ming said.
The rapid growth of imports also provided strong support for foreign trade last year. He Fei, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Research Center, told the 21st Century Business Herald that last year's imports of important equipment, key components and high-quality consumer goods such as integrated circuits, water and sea products continued to grow rapidly; imports of bulk commodities such as crude oil, natural gas and copper Also keep the volume and price rise.
He said that this aspect is because the Chinese economy still maintains steady growth, and on the other hand, China is actively expanding imports.
In the past year, China has reduced tariffs including pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, automobiles and industrial products four times. The total tariff level has dropped from 9.8% in the previous year to 7.5%, and some tariff-reduced goods imports have grown rapidly. Li Kuiwen said that in 2018, China imported 65.7 billion yuan of cosmetics, an increase of 67.5%, and imported water and sea products of 79.4 billion yuan, an increase of 39.9%.
In the 2018 year when protectionism is on the rise and global economic and trade frictions continue, it is really not easy for China to achieve the above results. Bai Ming pointed out that on the one hand, China and the United States and other trading partners have formed a very close relationship, "breaking the bones with links", trade protectionism in the short term is not enough to interrupt this economic and trade relationship; on the other hand, last year China Enterprises have obvious "selling out" phenomenon, which has raised China's foreign trade performance to some extent.
"grab exit" effect attenuation
It is worth noting that in the last two months of 2018, after the sharp decline in foreign trade data in November, foreign trade data fell again in December, falling into the negative growth range.
In December 2018, China's foreign trade import and export totaled 2,674.87 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year; exports were 1,534.93 billion yuan, up 0.2% year-on-year; imports were 1,139.94 billion yuan, down 3.1% year-on-year.
In terms of US dollars, the total import and export volume in December 2018 was US$385.44 billion, down 5.8% year-on-year, of which exports were US$221.25 billion, down 4.4% year-on-year; imports were US$164.19 billion, down 7.6% year-on-year.
Bai Ming pointed out that the "selling exports" in 2018 suppressed the performance of exports. "To a large extent, the export in December last year was overdrawn by the previous 'selling', and then there may be a phenomenon of 'anti-emptive export', that is, the foreign market enters the stage of digesting inventories, even if trade friction subsides exports, it may not be able to Warm up immediately."
At the same time, the export value in December 2017 was 231.523 billion US dollars, the highest value for the whole year of 2017. The export growth rate was 10.73%. The export value and the growth rate doubled also suppressed the growth of exports in December 2018.
He Fei said that imports in December 2018 set the lowest growth rate since 2017. This is first because the import prices of bulk commodities continue to fall. In December of that year, the average value of CRB synthesis, oil, food, livestock, metals, industrial raw materials and textiles fell by 16.46, 27.15, 10.97, 47.06, 43.26, 21.48 and 9.56 respectively in December 2017, and global oil prices continued to fall.
Second is the signs of a slowdown in the global economy. In December 2018, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, and for the first time since August 2016, it fell below the line of glory. The economic sentiment of China's major exporting countries has also weakened, and external demand has been significantly affected. In December 2018, JP Morgan Chase global, US, and Eurozone manufacturing PMIs were 51.5%, 54.1%, and 51.4%, respectively, setting a new low since 2017; South Korea, Australia, and South Africa's manufacturing PMI fell to the line of glory. under.
From the data of major exporting countries and regions, China’s export growth to the United States, Europe, Japan, Brazil, India, South Africa, Australia, and Taiwan was negative in December last year.
In this context, China has introduced a number of “stable foreign trade†measures in terms of export tax rebates, tax cuts and fee reductions, and simple government decentralization. Various localities have given more support to export-oriented private enterprises and small and micro enterprises.
Li Kuiwen introduced that China raised the export tax rebate rate twice last year. In 2018, the first batch of export tax rebates (397 items) was 745.1 billion yuan, an increase of 8% year-on-year; the second batch of export tax rebates (1172 items) 1.53 One trillion yuan, an increase of 7.5% over the same period of last year. In November and December after the implementation, the total export growth rate in February reached 13.3%.
However, He Fei pointed out that the release of the policy of “stable foreign trade†requires a process, and the policy hedging effect cannot be immediately apparent in the short term.
At the recent National Business Work Conference, Song Xianmao, deputy director of the Foreign Trade Department of the Ministry of Commerce, told the 21st Century Business Report that foreign trade is one of the three troikas that drive China's economic growth. At present, it directly or indirectly drives about 180 million people, accounting for about 180 million people. More than 20% of the total number of employed people in China, the tax on China's import link in November 2018 was 1.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.7%, accounting for 12.6% of total tax revenue. “Stable foreign trade†will be an important task.
The foreign trade situation is more complicated in 2019
Looking forward to 2019, Song Xianmao said that due to factors such as the global economic slowdown, the depreciation of emerging economies' currencies, and Sino-US economic and trade frictions, the situation facing foreign trade development in 2019 is more complicated and severe, and faces greater downward pressure.
Li Kuiwen pointed out that the biggest hidden worry of China's foreign trade in 2019 is that the external environment is complex and severe, and there are still many uncertainties and uncertainties. In some countries, protectionism and unilateralism are on the rise, world economic growth may slow down, and cross-border trade and investment. May be dragged down.
"At present, major international organizations have already lowered the growth rate of the global economy and trade. For example, the World Bank recently lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2019, from 3% to 2.9%, reflecting concerns about the trend of international trade. â€
He Fei expects that the probability of a global economic slowdown in 2019 is relatively high. In the developed economies, the US and European economies may touch the turning point of this round of recovery. It is expected that the economic growth rate of the US and EU will slow down to 2.5% and 1.5% respectively in 2019; As commodity prices continue to fall, the downward pressure on the economy of emerging economies in 2019 may increase further.
Bai Ming emphasized that in 2019, we must be highly vigilant against the overlapping of national economic downturns, financial market turmoil and trade protectionism.
"Recently, the US stock market has experienced a sharp decline, and the financial market has been turbulent. If some countries' bubble economy bursts, it will not rule out that global trade will be dragged into the negative growth range. On the other hand, as the United States launches trade protection measures against many countries, Trade protectionism in other countries has also shown signs of rising. It does not rule out other countries following the trend of the United States to launch trade protectionism measures; in addition, Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam are also taking the opportunity to compete for the Chinese market."
He Fei said that the temporary "tempo" of trade friction has reduced the pessimistic expectations of enterprises to a certain extent, but it is expected that China's exports will continue to slow down at the beginning of this year, and exports will continue to grow negatively. If the Sino-US negotiation meeting achieves a substantial breakthrough in the first quarter, it is expected that corporate confidence will gradually pick up in the second quarter, and the export growth rate will also recover.
The different monetary policy orientations of the countries and the resulting exchange rate fluctuations will also bring more uncertainty to foreign trade.
He Fei said that the Fed originally planned to raise interest rates twice in 2019. Recently, Powell’s “doves†speech increased the uncertainty of monetary policy; the ECB’s meeting on interest rates confirmed the end of quantitative easing at the end of 2018, but it was not clear When the position was raised for the first time, the Bank of Japan’s Financial Policy Decision Conference decided to continue to maintain the ultra-loose monetary policy. “The monetary policy swing in major developed economies will increase the exchange rate risk of foreign trade companies.â€
Bai Ming said that the RMB exchange rate is facing the contradiction between monetary easing and “stable exchange rateâ€. Recently, the RMB exchange rate has rebounded remarkably. Although this has boosted China's economic growth expectations, it has also brought greater pressure on foreign trade enterprises.
Regarding China's foreign trade in 2019, Li Kuiwen pointed out that the current long-term stable and stable development momentum of China's domestic economy has not changed. The central government has also issued a series of policy measures around the stabilization of foreign trade, and its effects are gradually emerging. This is laying down for the development of foreign trade this year. A solid policy foundation.
"At the same time, the external environment is still complicated and severe. There are still many uncertain and unstable factors, and the objective factors such as the increase in the base number may increase the growth rate of foreign trade," he said.
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